A blog about marketing, causes and a variety of topics in the “goodsphere”

Category Archives: The Future

Marketing your hyperlocal reputation (or just being a good neighbor)

Posted on August 30, 2010 in Marketing, The Future, Urban renewal

I’ve lived in quite a few different places over the years (Switzerland, NY, Arizona, multiple locations in Germany, etc.) and everywhere I’ve been, I’ve had some pretty interesting neighbors.  In some places, it was really easy to meet people (almost too easy sometimes).  In other places, it was a bit harder.

In today’s increasingly transient world, people don’t stay in 1 place for a very long time and neighborly relationships are getting harder & harder to forge.

A few years ago, Robert Putnam warned in Bowling Alone that our stock of social capital - the very fabric of our connections with each other, has plummeted, impoverishing our lives and communities.   Here are some depressing/interesting factoids from the book:

  • Every ten minutes of commuting reduces all forms of social capital by 10%
  • Joining and participating in one group cuts in half your odds of dying next year
  • Watching commercial entertainment TV is the only leisure activity where doing more of it is associated with lower social capital.

Encouragingly, a new generation of peer to peer online businesses are helping connect “people to neighbors” and reverse the “Bowling Alone” trend.  The NYT recently reported on a couple of interesting new web start-ups that allow people to share/rent their stuff.  NeighborGoods, Snapgoods & sharesomesugar are clawing out niches in the “rent online” world or “access economy.”  Both sites have a very social bent and promote saving $$, resources & rebuilding local community (all good ideas in the current zombieconomy).  Oh, and ladies, please check out this one bagborroworsteal (renting high-end handbags).

I can definitely see these sites working well in college towns and cities.  It will be interesting to see if the e-borrowing concept catches traction beyond the urban areas.  Will Ebay decides to step in and offer a “rent” instead of “buy/sell” section of their site as well?

Having a great reputation helps to sell online & offline.  It always has.  Just being a good neighbor & being a little more social offline can help turn around the very depressing “bowling alone” social capital funk we’ve been in over the past few decades.

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Brand “Foreclosure”

Posted on August 22, 2010 in Brands and Culture, The Future

Brands are born & then they die.  Some live longer than others, but more often than not there is a clear life cycle.  The magic we invent today can easily die tomorrow.

The pull of the habitual is strong.  Change is hard.  But brand “foreclosure” happens…just ask Circuit City, Netscape and Pan Am.

Here is a list of brands/products that died in 2009 (if someone finds a 2010 list, let me know).

So what brands deserve foreclosure in the near future (including personal brands)?

Let me know what you think.

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Edgy online shopping…will more people buy in?

Posted on January 19, 2010 in Consumers driving change, Purpose Products, The Future

More and more people are starting to understand that they really can drive change using the simple power of their wallet (or purse). Today, online players like The Ethical Superstore in the UK are making it easier for people to buy a range of Fair trade, Organic, and Eco-friendly products through a provider that they trust.

The Ethical Superstore is still very young…launched in Nov. 2006, they’ve recently merged with Natural Collection (a competing online ethical shop) and offer a big portfolio of products across a range of categories (ala Amazon.com).  You can find energy efficient gadgets & electronics, beauty, sports & outdoor, etc. etc.  They also have a great gift giving guide.

The site is well designed, and you really feel like you are on a major eRetailing site vs a small niche player.  You can shop by brand, ethical concern, price, etc.  The company’s brand selling line is compelling as well:  “Buy What You Believe”.

I’m predicting that there will be substantial growth in the ethical space over the next 5 - 10 years.  Of course, there will always be a fringe element of “deep greens” who object to the online sales model that involves energy intensive shipping around the world.

Realistically, however, the deep green team needs to realize that eCommerce is not going away.  In fact, quite the opposite is occurring…eCommerce is booming, while traditional retail channels stagnate.  At least responsible online retailers like The Ethical Superstore try to minimize the impact of what they deliver in every way, shape & form, while they provide new opportunities for people to discover products that line up with their values.

Keeping that Ethical, Purposeful Edge

Clearly, The Ethical Superstore will need to innovate and dig deeper to differentiate themselves against the big online players who are (no doubt) watching this space.  They’ll need to focus on innovation as a core component of their strategy in order to stay 1 step ahead.  I suspect they realize this & they will continue to find new ways in which they can delight their community with exciting new 21st century services that the big online retail players cannot (or will not) provide.  They will also need to keep their edge when it comes to discovering ethical brands.  Currently, they sell from the likes of Cafedirect, Ecover, Traidcraft, People Tree, Green & Blacks, Divine, EcoZone, Solio and others.

I wish them loads of luck as they build this ethical shopping category online.  If you want to find out the latest news from The Ethical Superstore, then follow their blog. They also have a facebook group where you can learn about new products, discounts and promotions

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Its All Good…or is it? Water wars in the 21st Century?

Posted on August 24, 2009 in The Future

Its All Good…or is it?  Water wars in the 21st Century?

Dr. Greg Allgood probably has the best last name in the entire “Goodsphere”.  He’s the head of P&G’s Children’s Safe Drinking Water Program and he regularly writes about his travels to remote villages where people use PUR water packets to purify their base water supply.  I don’t often get choked up when reading a blog, but as I was going through Notes from the Front Line, I found myself a bit teary eyed while reading the struggles of people in small villages simply trying to quench their thirst without getting an awful case of diarrhea or even a life threatening disease.

As P&G & others put together strong efforts to address the serious issue of non-treated water, I’m wondering tonight about how quickly the (lack of) water in dry regions around the world will escalate into conflict.  Will the combined threats of global warming, unfettered population growth and wasteful usage combine to create a serious situation for global security sometime this century?  What else needs to be done to stem the threat of Global water war outbreaks?

Water Wars?

There is a lot of debate around the potential for water wars.  Most experts agree that (lack of) water can be a source of state conflict, but whether or not the single water issue leads to full blown war is up for debate.  Seed magazine recently assembled a great list of experts to debate the topic, and they do better justice to the topic than I ever will.  If you are interested in the Chronology of water wars dating back to the days of Noah, check out worldwater.org.

So, how can risks of water war be mitigated this century?  Peter Gleick from worldwater.org offers a few ideas:

  • Meet water needs:  By meeting basic human needs for water, we can ensure, if not absolute justice, at least some semblance of equity and reduce the potential for conflict
  • Drive water diplomacy: By arming diplomats with a better understanding of the connections between water and conflict, they’ll be better prepared to negotiate.  In addition, we should ensure UN peacekeeping operations are prepared for water conflict

As CSDW partners, along with other organizations, commit to getting their hands dirty & meeting some basic water needs by providing purification solutions over the next few years, strong water diplomacy will definitely be needed across the arid regions & in water hot spots to reduce the potential for conflict.

I’ve seen a lot of recent posts around the bottled vs tap water debate recently in sustainability circles…while that is definitely a valid conversation to have for those of us with ample water (I even live 1 hour from the venerable water town of Evian in Switzerland) when we consider the prospect of actual water wars, the bottled vs tap debate almost becomes less significant.

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The Death of Procter & Gamble???

Posted on June 16, 2009 in The Future

When a marketing guru like Seth Godin makes a claim about the future of a company, people listen…

Recently Godin, author of Tribes, All Marketers are Liars and Seth’s blog, called out P&G as a company that will not survive the digital revolution.

On a digital marketing roundtable discussion on Six Pixels of Separation, Seth said that P&G, a thriving 170+ year old company that has successfully managed to double its business over the past 10 years of digital change, is going to die.  Seth believes that NOW digital is about to change everything (again) and P&G won’t be one of the companies that adapts.

A couple of other roundtable participants Charlene Li, and David Weinberger debated Seth’s claim.  Charlene noted that P&G is on top of digital & that new top management is putting Digital squarely in focus.  Adage ran a recent article about the new focus here.

Discussion around the death of P&G is not new…the debate popped up last year in June.  Piers Fawkes of PSFK (one of my favorite blogs by the way) kicked up a blog storm with post How Long Can P&G Last??  I wrote a response here.

I enjoyed the discussion around the Death of Procter & Gamble on Six Pixels of Separation.  This was an excellent call to action for P&Gers; it gives us something to debate internally.  However, during the conversation it felt like the group assumed that P&G only plays with a static product portfolio. In reality, P&G is big enough to be able to adjust its portfolio over time. So, P&G should (in theory) be able to adapt and innovate along with the changing times & the changing consumer. The big companies who don’t focus on innovation, don’t pay full attention to consumers, & don’t adapt WILL go away (e.g. GM).  I think there will still a place in the business landscape for larger companies that offer products that provide great consumer value. If P&G can manage to continue innovating (products, communication, organization) it will probably survive.  When I asked our outgoing CEO (A.G. Lafley) this week if P&G will be able to manage growth expectations over the next decade, I was reminded that P&G grew from 40 to 80 billion USD in revenue in the midst of the online revolution.  And, P&G only serves 3 Billion consumers today. The world is not shrinking…so the question is, can P&G re-invent itself & find a way to touch 6 Billion consumers over the next decade (hopefully with products built with sustainability in mind)?

The new P&G CEO, Bob McDonald, will have a tough act to follow:  A.G. Lafley was a great innovator.  As Bruce Nussbaum of BusinessWeek points out in President Obama, Please Make Lafley Chief Innovation Officer (A.G.) helped break down the silos inside the company and replace them with global networks of R&D; he opened the once-closed company to integrating new products from outside it’s culture; he created advisory panels of top innovation consultants to add fresh voices and criticism to proposed new products: and he made major progress in transforming a top-down, not-invented here corporate culture into a looser, more networked, innovative culture.

As with every revolution, there will be winners & losers. It won’t be easy for any big company to manage the new digital reality, however, those that are focused on innovating holistically and are willing to accept change as a given will probably be OK.

Go on over and listen to the discussion.  What do you guys think about this?

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Prosumers, DIY and the future of people power

Posted on June 11, 2009 in Consumers driving change, The Future

There’s no such thing as a free lunch –Milton Friedman

Back in the 80s, Alvin & Heidi Toffler came up with the term “prosumer” for people who create goods, services or experiences for their own use or satisfaction rather than for sale or exchange. Businesses that embraced the “prosumer” trend have prospered nicely since the Toffler’s first coined the phrase back in the early 80s:

  • Amazon.com (leveraging consumer reviews)
  • Home Depot (DIY)
  • Linux (open source software)

Like many of you out there, I enjoy prosuming.  I blog & volunteer with charitable organizations, start-up businesses & church. I also enjoy investigating how brands are leveraging prosuming to drive their business, so I find myself participating in different branded prosumer activities when they cross my path. I don’t, however, enjoy prosuming when it involves putting in extra labor on some things that have been smartly “outsourced” to me by companies or governments.  One horrible example comes from the tax man…I cannot stand how governments get me to dig deep into my finances (sometimes for hours) just so they can get paid. I don’ t know about you, but I find the ever increasing complexity of the tax man annoying (especially as my wife is German, I live in Switzerland and am an American).

I’ve really never thought about the economic impact of prosuming. To my surprise, the Toffler’s estimate that the economic impact of prosuming could be 50 Trillion USD.  I have no idea how they reached this enormous number, but if they are even close to right, then there is WAY more hidden, “under the iceberg” prosuming activity out than I ever thought.

Futuristic prosuming activity that I have always heard about, but never really considered, is rapid prototyping and desktop production.  Futurists have been predicting that someday, we will be able to produce our own clothing, furniture, sports equipment, etc. cheaply at home–on our own.  Admittedly, I still have some reservations about this.  I know desktop manufacturing will make it much easier for small manufacturing start-ups to get going, and I realize that zealous DIY counterfeiters will one day be able to perfectly recreate pretty much any item at home.  But, personally, I find it hard to believe that I will ever “print-out” my own watch at home.   Having said that, there are some folks out there watching this space closer than I am (check out this link) and I must admit that some of the new technologies coming out today are simply amazing.

The Toffler’s further assert that prosuming will continue to grow rapidly as it expands and deepens across health care, pensions, education, technology, etc. or the next few decades.

There is so much untapped prosuming potential out there…wouldn’t it be great if a company could harness it for good?  A couple of months back I wrote about ifwerantheworld.com, a company that is trying to organize “prosumers with good intentions” across the world.   As I wrote this post, this start-up kept popping up in my mind as something to watch. Good companies and marketers will continue to watch the prosumer space and find ways to harness it.

Do you have a favorite start-ups looking to harness prosumers in a positive way?

Hat tip to the Tofflers for their excellent book Revolutionary Wealth and their interesting prosumer examples (e.g. tax man)

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The Future of the Social Web…Power shifting to communities

Posted on April 28, 2009 in Inspiration, Marketing, The Future
The OpenID logoImage via Wikipedia

It has been a while since I’ve discussed social media specifically on this blog, but I recently saw a very interesting Forrester report on the future of social computing…so I thought I would write a few words on the topic this evening as I am always a sucker for future reports on practically everything.

The basic problem with social computing today, according to Forrester, is that the social experience is disjointed. Consumers have separate identities in each social network they visit. In the very near future, however, portable IDs (like OpenID and Facebook Connect) will soon empower consumers to bring their identities with them everywhere they go on the web. In addition, consumers surfing the Web will no longer have a lonely experience. New browsers and identity technologies will let consumers see what sites their friends have visited - and what they thought of the information there. Because they trust their friends more than they trust companies, consumers will lean on their network to make decisions about what they’re reading, considering, and buying.

In the report, Forrester describes how the online social experience has evolved through 5 eras: i) the era of social relationships ii) the era of social functionality iii) the era of social colonization iv) the era of social context and v) the era of social commerce…the last era of social commerce will eventually emerge around 2011 and start maturing by 2013.

I certainly agree that the current social landscape is very disjointed.  Consolidation across the social landscape would certainly simplify my life. Personally, I struggle to keep up with my social networks across Facebook, XING, LinkedIn, Twitter, Ning, etc. etc. Having a portable ID could be very useful…but, will it be a panacea? And, will I actually want my community to virtually travel with me as I surf the internet? I am fully on board with the first 4 eras, but I struggle a bit with the last one.  Just how much people are going to want to involve their communities in their purchasing decisions?  Having said that, I do see shifts happening in this area and I will keep my mind open as this develops.

Below are a few recommendations from Forrester on how to deal with changes coming in the future (in the interest of time, I’ve only listed a couple of these–here is the report if you want to get more).  Here is a blog post with more details on Jeremiah Owyang’s blog

Focus on advocates and prepare for communities

  • Focus on your most vocal advocates. New forms of advocacy will emerge as social applications systems enable rating friends’ reputations for reliability.
  • Prepare internal culture for seismic shifts - Senior marketers should start by participating in the Social Web themselves and lean on staff marketers who understand the Social Web and encourage them to educate others.

What it all means: As power shifts to communities, marketing will transform itself

  • Advertisers will buy based on social capital
  • Communities will influence media content more & more.
  • Brands with community appeal will assert power over brands without it. This one is very interesting…I’ll consider writing more on this later.

Kudos to the Forrester team for the report. This space is extremely fast moving and impossibly hard to predict (2 years ago, who thought Twitter would emerge like it has)? There is a lot more meat in the report, but it is late for me…so I’ll wrap up.

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Beware the Ivory Tower…a looming creativity decline in an era of no travel?

Posted on April 26, 2009 in Creativity, The Future
TOKYO - OCTOBER 23: A humanoid robot HRP-2 Pr...Image by Getty Images via Daylife

There are some super creative guys out there who are always on the go…always traveling across the globe–without so much as a worry.   I have lived in 4 countries and I stay pretty mobile in my current role.  And, yes, I recognize the benefits of being a nomad (keeps your mind open, brings new perspectives).  But, there is another level of mobile nomadic creatives who seem to crisscross the globe with reckless abandon (gone half of the week sometimes, or more).   Some of these guys (and girls) have apartments in 2 or 3 different cities.  Have you ever known someone like this and asked yourself–why SO mobile?

Well, it looks like we have a new study to validate the benefits of living abroad.  According to the American Psychological Association (you guessed it) living abroad expands people’s minds.  The research consisted of five studies involving students at Sorbonne University, INSEAD and the Kellogg School of Management in the US…researchers said that they discovered a strong relationship between living abroad and creativity (see this article for details). Reuters notes, with some caution, however, that while the links seem clear, they have not proven that living abroad is the cause of increased creativity.

What these studies tell me is that companies need to continue giving employees assignments abroad whenever possible if they want to keep a strong level of employee creativity and a healthy international cross pollination within their organizations.   This will be a tall order, however, in an era of declining budgets and carbon emissions tracking/reduction (which is a good thing)…

Will creativity start to decline a bit in an era of no travel?

In a recent GOOD article, the futurist Ray Kurzweil says that  “By the late 2020s, nanobots in our brain will create full-immersion virtual-reality environments from within the nervous system. That will replace most travel. Yikes!  What will happen when we don’t ever have to leave the office for anything–ever again?  Talk about an ivory tower issue!

Nanobots in our brain?  By the late 2020s?  That seems pretty far fetched to me.  I can easily see using a virtual-communication system that allows one to appear at a venue in three dimensions and in real time, but nanobots?  But will these freaky bots really be able to replace the hands on experience one gets when living in the real world–with real people.

What the new research from the American Psychological Association seems to tell me is that traveling and living abroad will still be important for creativity stimulation in humans.  I don’t believe that we will all be living in the matrix by 2020…maybe I’m wrong though, what do you think?

P.S.:  Here is a good link to another review of the recent study from the Social Entrepreneurship blog (tks for the tip!)

P.S.S:  Here is a Good blog on Creativity

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5 Trends marketers should consider by 2025

Posted on February 23, 2009 in The Future

Human strength augmentation, service robotics, artificial intelligence & life extension…these are just a few of the wonderful (or not so wonderful) things waiting for us in 2025.

Tonight I am stepping out of the marketing fishbowl to take a “long view” look at the dynamic changes happening in the Global landscape.  All too often I find myself reading marketing trend guides that discuss what’s just around the corner (e.g. the next couple of years) because this time frame is more actionable.  Today, however, I want to pull out the Big crystal ball to discuss mega shifts in the landscape that will ultimately affect countries, companies, and, of course, brands two decades from now.

The U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) published its “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” a few months ago.  The NIC is a think tank conducting medium- and long-term strategic analysis for top policy makers.  NIC reports are “mash-ups”  between analytical reports of key U.S. intelligence centers - the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, etc.,-that help policy makers make sense of the (future) world.

Unfortunately, the overarching themes of this report are a little dreary (from a Western perspective).  I’ve listed a few below:

  • The end of US dominance and decline of the $
  • Western democratic principles will be threatened in an increasingly multipolar & dangerous world
  • European Union will basically only be a “hobbled giant”

Below are a few items that I pulled out which may be of some interest to marketers as they look out to 2025:  Most of these are obvious, but interesting to reflect on…

Consumer Demographics:  The world’s population is expected to grow to 8 billion people by 2025…that’s well over a Billion more folks more than we have today (1.2 Billion to be exact).  India’s population is expected to overtake China’s population by 2025.

Needless to say, this continued population explosion will put A LOT of pressure on our energy, food and water resources as we head into 2025.

Key Countries: The US will remain a powerful state by 2025, but will continue losing its influence…the $ will also continue losing its relevance.  The void left from America’s decline will be filled by Brazil, India, China, and the Korean Peninsula (by that time two Koreas will merge).  Clearly, companies/brands that have grown up serving primarily US/Western European markets will find these areas becoming less & less relevant by 2025.

Companies:  By 2025, nation-states will no longer be the only—and often not the most important—actors on the world stage and the “international system” will have morphed to accommodate the new reality.  The relative power of various nonstate actors—including businesses, tribes,religious organizations, and even criminal networks—will grow as these groups influence decisions on a widening range of social, economic, and political issues.

I’m sure that Corporate Social Responsibility will be a very hot topic in 2025 as companies are increasingly expected to play a larger role in society.

Interesting New Technologies:

Human strength augmentation technologies:  Mechanical and electronic systems that supplement
human physical capabilities will come into their own by 2025.  Things like wearable exoskeletons with mechanical actuators to monitor and respond to arm and leg movements, providing the wearer with increased strength and control.

Service robotics:  Robots and unmanned vehicles will start to really improve.

Ubiquitous computing will be enabled by widespread tagging and networking of objects (what the report calls the Internet of Things) such as food, furniture, and paper documents. Everything will be located and identified, monitored, and remotely controlled through RFID, sensor networks, tiny embedded servers, and energy harvesters-connected via the next-generation Internet.

Biogerontechnology is the study of the cellular and molecular basis of disease and aging.  New technologies expected to arise include improvements in biosensors for real-time monitoring of human health, robust information technology, ubiquitous DNA sequencing and DNA-specific medicine, and targeted drug delivery mechanisms.

Global Warming:  This report has an interesting way of highlighting how global warming will affect us by 2025.  In the “October Surprise scenario”, a diary entry of a future US President shows what transpires when countries stay too preoccupied with achieving economic growth at the expense of safeguarding the environment.  New York City is hit by a major hurricane linked to global climate change; the NY Stock Exchange is severely damaged and, in the face of such destruction, world leaders must begin to think about taking drastic measures, such as relocating parts of coastal cities.

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